Performance vs. Expectations
Compares actual wins with expected wins, normalized for games played.
HOT_SEAT_V1_3
Back to rankingsHot Seat Methodology
A reproducible measure of performance pressure, built from football results rather than rumors, contracts, or reputation scores.
The CFB Intel Hot Seat Index is a proprietary measure of performance pressure. It is not a probability of termination and does not claim to measure private decisions by universities, athletic directors, boosters or boards.
0–100 scale
Six transparent factors
Program Trajectory
Measures weighted movement in overall and conference performance across recent seasons.
Current-Season Results
Combines overall and conference winning percentage without treating missing conference games as losses.
Talent Utilization
Compares roster-talent percentile with the first available performance rating: CORE, SP+, FPI, then Elo.
Bad Losses & Big Games
Uses pregame spreads or marked rating fallbacks for losses, plus results against AP-ranked opponents at game time.
Fan Poll
Uses weekly Yes/No sentiment after 100 valid votes; before that threshold the model remains neutral at 50.
Preseason blending
Preseason blending applies to verified veteran coaches. A verified first-year coach does not inherit the prior coach’s preseason score, expectations gap, or multi-year decline.
First-Year Adjustment
First-year status must be verified from coach-school history; unknown tenure receives no adjustment. Verified first-year coaches use only current-tenure performance, receive the 50/35/20 protection, and an undefeated coach through Week 4 is capped in the Secure range. Raw scores of 90 or higher can be reduced by no more than 20 points.
Weekly caps
Normal movement is capped at ±10 points. An FCS loss, a loss as a 14+ point favorite, a Top-10 win, a conference-title win, or a CFP win can expand the cap to ±15.
Missing inputs
A missing objective factor is never converted to zero. Its weight is redistributed across available objective factors. Scores below 70% objective completeness are withheld as Insufficient Data.
Versioned snapshots
Published weekly scores preserve their formula version and displayed movement. HOT_SEAT_V1_3 corrects coach-era boundaries and never defaults missing tenure to first-year.
Status bands
0–50Secure51–75Warming Up76–90Warm91–100Hot Seat
Status is calculated from the final, context-adjusted score. Labels are descriptive, never firing probabilities.