Simulate 100 possible outcomes around one authoritative matchup projection.
VS
Model through Week 10 · CFB_INTEL_MODEL_2026_V1 · Each run represents 100 possible outcomes, not a certainty.
Model Baseline
Air Force is favored
Projected Air Force 34 – Akron 17 · Expected margin 17.7 · Expected total 51.3. Individual batches vary around this baseline.
Air Force 95%Akron 5%
Customize Model
Custom weights let you change how much influence each available factor has. They do not change the underlying team data or CFB Intel's official prediction.
Model context
Why the model favors Air Force
The official win margin uses the CFB Intel Model. Scoring rates shape the scores; in a custom run you can also use them to adjust win margin.
FactorAir ForceAkronEdge
Neutral-field point rating1.4-16.3Air Force
Points scored / game29.319.0Air Force
Points allowed / game21.532.8Air Force
Home-field adjustment——Even
Model transparency
How scores are simulated
CFB Intel combines an opponent-adjusted team rating, offensive and defensive efficiency, current performance, and special teams into neutral-field strength. Home field is applied separately. The same expected margin, total, and probability appear in other matchup features.
Each row is one sampled football outcome around that baseline. Wins out of 100 vary from run to run; over many runs they approach the Model probability. Custom weights affect only your own run.
