CFB Intel model · 2026
CFP Probability
10,000 locally calculated remaining-season simulations using the stored weekly team model. These are CFB Intel estimates, not official CFP probabilities.
| Team | Conference | Record | Rank | FPI | CFP probability | Path |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 3-0 | #3 | 26.8 | 100.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Texas | SEC | 3-0 | #1 | 28.1 | 99.9% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Ohio State | Big Ten | 2-1 | #7 | 28.1 | 99.1% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Miami | ACC | 3-0 | #6 | 23.9 | 99.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Georgia | SEC | 3-0 | #2 | 27.1 | 98.5% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Indiana | Big Ten | 3-0 | #5 | 24.6 | 95.4% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Alabama | SEC | 3-0 | #8 | 22.5 | 82.2% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Texas Tech | Big 12 | 3-0 | #11 | 15.8 | 77.3% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Boise State | Pac-12 | 2-1 | — | 8.1 | 63.7% | Must Win Out |
 Ole Miss | SEC | 3-0 | #4 | 17.7 | 56.8% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Penn State | Big Ten | 3-0 | #13 | 18.2 | 47.7% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Utah | Big 12 | 3-0 | #15 | 16.5 | 43.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 New Mexico | Mountain West | 2-1 | — | 4.0 | 42.1% | Must Win Out |
 LSU | SEC | 2-1 | #10 | 20.4 | 36.8% | Controls Their Destiny |
 James Madison | Sun Belt | 3-0 | — | 3.2 | 36.6% | Controls Their Destiny |
 BYU | Big 12 | 3-0 | #9 | 15.2 | 32.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Louisville | ACC | 2-1 | #16 | 13.9 | 22.9% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Tennessee | SEC | 3-0 | #14 | 18.5 | 11.8% | Controls Their Destiny |
 South Florida | American Athletic | 3-0 | — | 0.8 | 8.9% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Western Michigan | Mid-American | 2-1 | — | -0.0 | 8.0% | Must Win Out |
 Oregon | Big Ten | 2-1 | #20 | 19.2 | 5.8% | Controls Their Destiny |
 North Dakota State | Mountain West | 4-0 | — | 0.4 | 4.9% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Kansas State | Big 12 | 3-0 | — | 11.2 | 4.6% | Controls Their Destiny |
 USC | Big Ten | 4-0 | #12 | 15.4 | 3.4% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Toledo | Mid-American | 2-1 | — | -1.8 | 3.0% | Must Win Out |
 SMU | ACC | 2-1 | #22 | 12.2 | 2.8% | Controls Their Destiny |
 UTSA | American Athletic | 2-1 | — | -1.7 | 1.8% | Must Win Out |
 Michigan | Big Ten | 3-0 | #18 | 14.9 | 1.6% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Pittsburgh | ACC | 3-0 | — | 12.3 | 1.6% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Tulsa | American Athletic | 3-0 | — | -1.0 | 1.2% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Florida | SEC | 3-0 | #21 | 16.4 | 1.2% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Memphis | American Athletic | 3-1 | — | -0.8 | 0.8% | Must Win Out |
 Virginia Tech | ACC | 3-0 | — | 11.6 | 0.7% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Tulane | American Athletic | 1-2 | — | -0.2 | 0.7% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Fresno State | Pac-12 | 2-1 | — | -0.5 | 0.7% | Must Win Out |
 Louisiana | Sun Belt | 2-1 | — | -5.5 | 0.6% | Must Win Out |
 Houston | Big 12 | 2-1 | #25 | 10.8 | 0.5% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Virginia | ACC | 2-1 | — | 9.2 | 0.4% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Iowa | Big Ten | 3-0 | #17 | 12.1 | 0.4% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Duke | ACC | 3-0 | — | 9.1 | 0.3% | Controls Their Destiny |
 North Texas | American Athletic | 1-2 | — | -2.3 | 0.3% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Baylor | Big 12 | 2-1 | — | 8.1 | 0.3% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Nebraska | Big Ten | 3-0 | — | 14.2 | 0.2% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Mississippi State | SEC | 3-0 | #24 | 14.1 | 0.1% | Controls Their Destiny |
 UCF | Big 12 | 2-1 | — | 4.9 | 0.1% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Oklahoma | SEC | 2-1 | — | 16.7 | 0.1% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Delaware | Conference USA | 2-1 | — | -4.0 | 0.1% | Must Win Out |
 TCU | Big 12 | 2-1 | — | 7.2 | 0.1% | Controls Their Destiny |
 App State | Sun Belt | 3-0 | — | -5.0 | 0.1% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Clemson | ACC | 2-1 | — | 6.1 | 0.1% | Controls Their Destiny |
 East Carolina | American Athletic | 1-2 | — | -4.6 | 0.1% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Texas A&M | SEC | 2-1 | #23 | 18.1 | 0.1% | Controls Their Destiny |
 West Virginia | Big 12 | 3-0 | — | 5.3 | 0.1% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Liberty | Conference USA | 2-1 | — | -4.4 | 0.0% | Must Win Out |
 Oregon State | Pac-12 | 1-2 | — | -2.2 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Iowa State | Big 12 | 2-1 | — | 4.4 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 2-1 | — | 5.0 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Arizona | Big 12 | 2-1 | — | 5.9 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Arizona State | Big 12 | 2-1 | — | 3.8 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Army | American Athletic | 1-1 | — | -2.7 | 0.0% | Must Win Out |
 Cincinnati | Big 12 | 3-0 | — | 5.8 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Georgia State | Sun Belt | 2-1 | — | -8.8 | 0.0% | Must Win Out |
 Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 1-2 | — | -7.0 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Miami (OH) | Mid-American | 1-2 | — | -8.4 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Troy | Sun Belt | 2-1 | — | -6.0 | 0.0% | Must Win Out |
 Wake Forest | ACC | 2-1 | — | 4.6 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Air Force | Mountain West | 1-1 | — | -5.9 | 0.0% | Must Win Out |
 Akron | Mid-American | 1-2 | — | -17.9 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Arkansas | SEC | 1-2 | — | -1.6 | 0.0% | Needs Help |
 Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 1-2 | — | -10.2 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Auburn | SEC | 2-1 | — | 12.9 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Ball State | Mid-American | 1-2 | — | -21.6 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Boston College | ACC | 2-1 | — | -5.8 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Bowling Green | Mid-American | 0-3 | — | -23.2 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Buffalo | Mid-American | 1-2 | — | -16.6 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 California | ACC | 2-1 | — | -1.5 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Central Michigan | Mid-American | 2-1 | — | -16.2 | 0.0% | Must Win Out |
 Charlotte | American Athletic | 0-3 | — | -15.0 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | 1-2 | — | -8.3 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Colorado | Big 12 | 2-1 | — | -0.7 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Colorado State | Pac-12 | 2-1 | — | -6.1 | 0.0% | Must Win Out |
 Eastern Michigan | Mid-American | 1-3 | — | -19.3 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Florida Atlantic | American Athletic | 2-1 | — | -10.4 | 0.0% | Must Win Out |
 Florida International | Conference USA | 1-2 | — | -10.8 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Florida State | ACC | 1-2 | — | 7.8 | 0.0% | Needs Help |
 Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 1-2 | — | -7.8 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Georgia Tech | ACC | 1-2 | — | 2.1 | 0.0% | Needs Help |
 Hawai'i | Mountain West | 1-2 | — | -8.5 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Illinois | Big Ten | 2-1 | — | 6.0 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Jacksonville State | Conference USA | 2-2 | — | -8.8 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Kansas | Big 12 | 1-2 | — | -0.1 | 0.0% | Needs Help |
 Kennesaw State | Conference USA | 1-2 | — | -11.0 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Kent State | Mid-American | 1-2 | — | -23.2 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Kentucky | SEC | 2-1 | — | 8.4 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Marshall | Sun Belt | 2-1 | — | -11.9 | 0.0% | Must Win Out |
 Maryland | Big Ten | 2-1 | — | 5.5 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Massachusetts | Mid-American | 3-0 | — | -11.4 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Michigan State | Big Ten | 2-1 | — | 4.2 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | 2-1 | — | -13.2 | 0.0% | Must Win Out |
 Minnesota | Big Ten | 2-1 | — | 0.9 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Missouri | SEC | 3-0 | #19 | 10.5 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Missouri State | Conference USA | 1-2 | — | -13.4 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 NC State | ACC | 1-2 | — | 2.0 | 0.0% | Needs Help |
 Navy | American Athletic | 1-1 | — | -5.3 | 0.0% | Must Win Out |
 Nevada | Mountain West | 1-2 | — | -8.5 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 New Mexico State | Conference USA | 1-2 | — | -13.5 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 North Carolina | ACC | 2-1 | — | 4.9 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Northern Illinois | Mountain West | 0-3 | — | -17.0 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Northwestern | Big Ten | 2-0 | — | 9.3 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Ohio | Mid-American | 1-2 | — | -10.2 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Old Dominion | Sun Belt | 1-2 | — | -7.4 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Purdue | Big Ten | 1-2 | — | -1.6 | 0.0% | Needs Help |
 Rice | American Athletic | 1-2 | — | -13.5 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Rutgers | Big Ten | 0-3 | — | -5.6 | 0.0% | Eliminated |
 Sacramento State | Mid-American | 1-3 | — | -25.1 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Sam Houston | Conference USA | 1-2 | — | -8.9 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 San Diego State | Pac-12 | 1-2 | — | -3.3 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 San José State | Mountain West | 2-2 | — | -13.2 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 South Alabama | Sun Belt | 2-1 | — | -7.3 | 0.0% | Must Win Out |
 South Carolina | SEC | 2-1 | — | 12.1 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Southern Miss | Sun Belt | 1-2 | — | -13.1 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Stanford | ACC | 1-2 | — | -7.9 | 0.0% | Needs Help |
 Syracuse | ACC | 1-2 | — | 0.6 | 0.0% | Needs Help |
 Temple | American Athletic | 1-2 | — | -4.6 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Texas State | Pac-12 | 1-2 | — | -4.9 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 UAB | American Athletic | 1-2 | — | -14.9 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 UCLA | Big Ten | 3-0 | — | 7.4 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 UConn | FBS Independents | 2-1 | — | -5.8 | 0.0% | Eliminated |
 UL Monroe | Sun Belt | 0-3 | — | -22.6 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 UNLV | Mountain West | 1-2 | — | -5.9 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 UTEP | Mountain West | 1-2 | — | -18.3 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Utah State | Pac-12 | 0-3 | — | -8.8 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Vanderbilt | SEC | 3-0 | — | 6.1 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Washington | Big Ten | 3-0 | — | 5.8 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Washington State | Pac-12 | 1-2 | — | -7.0 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Western Kentucky | Conference USA | 0-3 | — | -14.3 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Wisconsin | Big Ten | 2-1 | — | 4.8 | 0.0% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Wyoming | Mountain West | 1-2 | — | -19.7 | 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
CFB Intel Selection Model
Each simulation resolves remaining games from stored FPI and a 2.5-point home adjustment, determines conference champions, assigns the four power-conference automatic bids and highest-ranked eligible other-conference champion, then selects seven at-large teams with a deterministic score based on projected record, FPI, schedule strength, current ranking, losses, and championship result. Notre Dame competes for an at-large position and consumes one of those slots when selected. No home advantage is used for conference title simulations.
Model version CFP_FORMAT_2026_V1 · Categories describe a path, not a guarantee.