CFB Intel model · 2026
CFP Probability
Simulated remaining seasons using the latest available team ratings and schedules. These are CFB Intel estimates, not official CFP probabilities. Early-season estimates intentionally reflect greater uncertainty.
| Team | Conference | Record | Rank | FPI | CFP probability | Path |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 6-1 | #4 | 27.9 | 94.1%▲ 7.4% | Must Win Out |
 Indiana | Big Ten | 6-1 | #6 | 25.4 | 93.1%▲ 8.4% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Ohio State | Big Ten | 6-1 | #11 | 28.2 | 91.5%▲ 7.7% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Alabama | SEC | 5-2 | #9 | 24.2 | 85.8%▲ 6.7% | Needs Help |
 Georgia | SEC | 6-1 | #2 | 26.7 | 84.4%▲ 5.5% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Miami | ACC | 6-0 | #1 | 26.5 | 84.2%▲ 3.2% | Controls Their Destiny |
 LSU | SEC | 5-2 | #15 | 23.0 | 73.4%▲ 3.3% | Needs Help |
 BYU | Big 12 | 6-0 | #7 | 17.4 | 61.5%▲ 4.8% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Ole Miss | SEC | 5-1 | #12 | 18.8 | 57.9%▲ 9.2% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Boise State | Pac-12 | 5-1 | #20 | 11.4 | 54.1%▲ 8.1% | Must Win Out |
 Tennessee | SEC | 6-1 | #16 | 18.1 | 52.7%▲ 4.8% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Texas | SEC | 4-2 | #10 | 23.6 | 49.2%▲ 3.2% | Needs Help |
 Utah | Big 12 | 6-0 | #3 | 17.4 | 35.9%▲ 3.1% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Texas Tech | Big 12 | 6-0 | #13 | 19.4 | 28.5%▲ 2.1% | Controls Their Destiny |
 UCLA | Big Ten | 6-0 | #5 | 11.0 | 22.3%▲ 4.9% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Kentucky | SEC | 6-1 | #8 | 12.7 | 22.2%▼ 1.2% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Wake Forest | ACC | 6-1 | #14 | 15.4 | 20.5%▲ 1.6% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Oregon | Big Ten | 4-2 | — | 19.0 | 17.0%▼ 4.4% | Needs Help |
 Houston | Big 12 | 6-1 | #17 | 14.8 | 16.9%▲ 2.9% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Florida | SEC | 5-2 | #25 | 14.3 | 13.3%▲ 2.6% | Needs Help |
 Oregon State | Pac-12 | 5-2 | — | 6.0 | 12.2%▲ 0.5% | Long Shot |
 New Mexico | Mountain West | 5-1 | #22 | 7.8 | 11.4%▼ 1.6% | Must Win Out |
 Nebraska | Big Ten | 5-2 | — | 17.1 | 10.2%▼ 2.9% | Needs Help |
 North Texas | American Athletic | 4-2 | — | 2.1 | 8.9%▲ 1.7% | Long Shot |
 Iowa | Big Ten | 5-1 | #21 | 13.1 | 8.6%▼ 0.6% | Controls Their Destiny |
 James Madison | Sun Belt | 7-0 | — | 7.0 | 8.2%▼ 3.9% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Northwestern | Big Ten | 5-1 | — | 13.1 | 7.2%▲ 0.6% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Missouri | SEC | 5-2 | #19 | 12.3 | 4.9%▼ 1.7% | Needs Help |
 SMU | ACC | 5-1 | — | 9.8 | 4.2%▲ 0.2% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Auburn | SEC | 4-2 | — | 13.4 | 3.5%▼ 0.5% | Needs Help |
 Arizona | Big 12 | 5-1 | #24 | 10.5 | 2.7%▼ 1.8% | Controls Their Destiny |
 USC | Big Ten | 6-1 | #18 | 14.9 | 2.5%▼ 1.6% | Controls Their Destiny |
 Mississippi State | SEC | 4-2 | — | 9.1 | 2.0%▼ 2.1% | Needs Help |
 Louisville | ACC | 4-3 | — | 13.3 | 1.8%▼ 1.8% | Long Shot |
 Wisconsin | Big Ten | 4-2 | — | 9.0 | 1.8%▼ 1.4% | Needs Help |
 Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 4-2 | — | -3.7 | 1.4%▼ 0.5% | Long Shot |
 Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 4-2 | — | 9.0 | 1.4%▼ 1.5% | Needs Help |
 Baylor | Big 12 | 4-2 | — | 10.0 | 1.3%▼ 1.4% | Needs Help |
 Texas A&M | SEC | 4-3 | — | 13.5 | 1.3%▼ 1.3% | Long Shot |
 UTSA | American Athletic | 6-1 | — | -1.9 | 1.2%▼ 1.0% | Must Win Out |
 Oklahoma | SEC | 3-3 | — | 13.3 | 1.2%▼ 1.3% | Long Shot |
 South Carolina | SEC | 3-3 | #23 | 11.6 | 1.1%▼ 1.8% | Long Shot |
 Duke | ACC | 4-2 | — | 7.8 | 1.1%▼ 1.3% | Needs Help |
 Liberty | Conference USA | 5-1 | — | 0.7 | 1.0%▼ 1.1% | Must Win Out |
 TCU | Big 12 | 3-3 | — | 8.6 | 1.0%▼ 1.4% | Long Shot |
 Michigan | Big Ten | 4-2 | — | 10.9 | 1.0%▼ 1.4% | Needs Help |
 North Carolina | ACC | 4-2 | — | 8.7 | 1.0%▼ 1.2% | Needs Help |
 Penn State | Big Ten | 3-4 | — | 11.7 | 1.0%▼ 1.2% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Pittsburgh | ACC | 5-2 | — | 9.2 | 1.0%▼ 1.5% | Needs Help |
 Kansas State | Big 12 | 4-2 | — | 7.6 | 0.9%▼ 1.4% | Needs Help |
 Memphis | American Athletic | 5-2 | — | 3.0 | 0.9%▼ 1.2% | Virtually Eliminated |
 North Dakota State | Mountain West | 6-1 | — | -0.2 | 0.9%▼ 1.2% | Must Win Out |
 Virginia Tech | ACC | 5-2 | — | 6.6 | 0.9%▼ 1.1% | Needs Help |
 Washington | Big Ten | 4-3 | — | 4.7 | 0.7%▼ 1.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Texas State | Pac-12 | 3-3 | — | -0.1 | 0.7%▼ 0.9% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Kansas | Big 12 | 2-4 | — | 3.7 | 0.7%▼ 1.1% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Florida State | ACC | 3-4 | — | 9.6 | 0.7%▼ 1.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 UCF | Big 12 | 3-3 | — | 5.2 | 0.7%▼ 1.1% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Virginia | ACC | 4-3 | — | 5.6 | 0.7%▼ 1.1% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Cincinnati | Big 12 | 4-2 | — | 3.5 | 0.7%▼ 0.9% | Needs Help |
 Toledo | Mid-American | 5-2 | — | -3.4 | 0.6%▼ 0.8% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Clemson | ACC | 4-2 | — | 6.5 | 0.6%▼ 0.9% | Needs Help |
 Louisiana | Sun Belt | 5-2 | — | -1.8 | 0.6%▼ 0.9% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Fresno State | Pac-12 | 4-3 | — | -0.7 | 0.6%▼ 0.8% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Illinois | Big Ten | 3-3 | — | 4.4 | 0.6%▼ 0.8% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Iowa State | Big 12 | 3-3 | — | 4.3 | 0.6%▼ 1.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 South Florida | American Athletic | 5-2 | — | -2.2 | 0.6%▼ 0.8% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Air Force | Mountain West | 5-1 | — | -2.1 | 0.6%▼ 0.9% | Must Win Out |
 Army | American Athletic | 4-2 | — | -0.0 | 0.5%▼ 0.9% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Minnesota | Big Ten | 4-2 | — | -0.2 | 0.5%▼ 0.7% | Needs Help |
 NC State | ACC | 3-3 | — | 1.1 | 0.5%▼ 0.7% | Virtually Eliminated |
 UConn | FBS Independents | 3-3 | — | -6.0 | 0.5%▼ 0.7% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Georgia State | Sun Belt | 4-2 | — | -5.9 | 0.5%▼ 0.8% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Akron | Mid-American | 1-6 | — | -22.1 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 App State | Sun Belt | 4-2 | — | -8.9 | 0.5%▼ 0.3% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Arizona State | Big 12 | 3-3 | — | -1.3 | 0.5%▼ 0.5% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Arkansas | SEC | 3-4 | — | 2.2 | 0.5%▼ 0.5% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 3-4 | — | -8.5 | 0.5%▼ 0.3% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Ball State | Mid-American | 2-5 | — | -21.1 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Boston College | ACC | 3-3 | — | -2.6 | 0.5%▼ 0.4% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Bowling Green | Mid-American | 2-5 | — | -17.7 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Buffalo | Mid-American | 4-3 | — | -12.9 | 0.5%▼ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 California | ACC | 3-4 | — | -3.9 | 0.5%▼ 0.2% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Central Michigan | Mid-American | 3-4 | — | -14.3 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Charlotte | American Athletic | 1-6 | — | -21.9 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | 2-5 | — | -13.1 | 0.5%▼ 0.1% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Colorado | Big 12 | 2-4 | — | 1.0 | 0.5%▼ 0.6% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Colorado State | Pac-12 | 2-4 | — | -12.6 | 0.5%▼ 0.1% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Delaware | Conference USA | 2-4 | — | -14.1 | 0.5%▼ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 East Carolina | American Athletic | 3-3 | — | -5.2 | 0.5%▼ 0.5% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Eastern Michigan | Mid-American | 4-4 | — | -16.7 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Florida Atlantic | American Athletic | 4-2 | — | -10.1 | 0.5%▼ 0.3% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Florida International | Conference USA | 3-3 | — | -9.2 | 0.5%▼ 0.4% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 3-4 | — | -4.6 | 0.5%▼ 0.6% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Georgia Tech | ACC | 2-4 | — | 0.3 | 0.5%▼ 0.7% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Hawai'i | Mountain West | 1-6 | — | -12.3 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Jacksonville State | Conference USA | 5-2 | — | -8.3 | 0.5%▼ 0.5% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Kennesaw State | Conference USA | 1-5 | — | -11.4 | 0.5%▼ 0.1% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Kent State | Mid-American | 2-5 | — | -22.3 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Marshall | Sun Belt | 3-3 | — | -16.5 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Maryland | Big Ten | 2-5 | — | -3.6 | 0.5%▼ 0.4% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Massachusetts | Mid-American | 4-3 | — | -13.8 | 0.5%▼ 0.3% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Miami (OH) | Mid-American | 4-3 | — | -9.8 | 0.5%▼ 0.3% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Michigan State | Big Ten | 2-5 | — | 1.7 | 0.5%▼ 0.6% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | 3-3 | — | -18.3 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Missouri State | Conference USA | 2-4 | — | -14.7 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Navy | American Athletic | 2-4 | — | -5.5 | 0.5%▼ 0.6% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Nevada | Mountain West | 2-4 | — | -8.4 | 0.5%▼ 0.3% | Virtually Eliminated |
 New Mexico State | Conference USA | 2-4 | — | -13.2 | 0.5%▼ 0.1% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Northern Illinois | Mountain West | 0-6 | — | -20.1 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Ohio | Mid-American | 5-2 | — | -7.1 | 0.5%▼ 0.5% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Old Dominion | Sun Belt | 2-5 | — | -14.0 | 0.5%▼ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Purdue | Big Ten | 3-4 | — | 1.9 | 0.5%▼ 0.7% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Rice | American Athletic | 1-6 | — | -15.4 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Rutgers | Big Ten | 2-4 | — | -3.1 | 0.5%▼ 0.4% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Sacramento State | Mid-American | 1-6 | — | -32.4 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Sam Houston | Conference USA | 1-5 | — | -16.7 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 San Diego State | Pac-12 | 3-4 | — | -8.8 | 0.5%▼ 0.1% | Virtually Eliminated |
 San José State | Mountain West | 4-3 | — | -12.5 | 0.5%▼ 0.2% | Virtually Eliminated |
 South Alabama | Sun Belt | 4-2 | — | -6.8 | 0.5%▼ 0.3% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Southern Miss | Sun Belt | 1-5 | — | -14.7 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Stanford | ACC | 3-4 | — | -11.4 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Syracuse | ACC | 2-4 | — | 0.5 | 0.5%▼ 0.7% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Temple | American Athletic | 2-5 | — | -9.3 | 0.5%▼ 0.2% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Troy | Sun Belt | 3-3 | — | -9.6 | 0.5%▼ 0.2% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Tulane | American Athletic | 3-3 | — | -1.2 | 0.5%▼ 0.5% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Tulsa | American Athletic | 4-3 | — | -3.7 | 0.5%▼ 0.6% | Virtually Eliminated |
 UAB | American Athletic | 4-3 | — | -13.8 | 0.5%▼ 0.2% | Virtually Eliminated |
 UL Monroe | Sun Belt | 0-6 | — | -26.3 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 UNLV | Mountain West | 4-3 | — | -2.1 | 0.5%▼ 0.6% | Virtually Eliminated |
 UTEP | Mountain West | 1-6 | — | -24.4 | 0.5%▲ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Utah State | Pac-12 | 2-4 | — | -7.6 | 0.5%▼ 0.2% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Vanderbilt | SEC | 3-4 | — | 0.5 | 0.5%▼ 0.6% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Washington State | Pac-12 | 1-6 | — | -9.0 | 0.5%▼ 0.1% | Virtually Eliminated |
 West Virginia | Big 12 | 4-3 | — | 0.4 | 0.5%▼ 0.5% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Western Kentucky | Conference USA | 3-4 | — | -11.9 | 0.5%▼ 0.1% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Western Michigan | Mid-American | 5-2 | — | -2.5 | 0.5%▼ 0.7% | Virtually Eliminated |
 Wyoming | Mountain West | 4-3 | — | -15.4 | 0.5%▼ 0.0% | Virtually Eliminated |
What do these numbers mean?
CFP probability is the share of simulated seasons in which a team reaches the 12-team playoff. A 5% chance means about 5 in 100 modeled seasons, not that a team has been eliminated. FPI estimates team strength in points relative to an average team; a larger number means a stronger team. Path describes what a team likely needs to do; it is a guide to the route available, separate from the numerical chance. Movement is the change in probability since the previous weekly calculation, measured in percentage points.
How it worksCFB Intel Selection Model
Each simulation resolves remaining games using CFB Intel Model matchup probabilities and its centralized home-field adjustment, determines conference champions, assigns the four power-conference automatic bids and highest-ranked eligible other-conference champion, then selects seven at-large teams with a documented score based on projected record, FPI, schedule strength, quality wins, bad losses, conference titles, and official CFP rankings when available. Close résumés include modest selection uncertainty. Notre Dame competes for an at-large position and consumes one of those slots when selected. No home advantage is used for conference title simulations.
Model version CFP_MODEL_2026_V3:CFB_INTEL_MODEL_2026_V1 · Early-season estimates blend simulated outcomes with team-strength priors; all unverified outcomes are bounded between 0.5% and 99.5%. Categories describe a path, not a guarantee.